Trump winning profile

Looking at the psychology of the Trump campaign, to put it simply, he is saying what many people would say were they in a position to say it. And he does not really care since he is in a “win win” situation, should he pull off the Presidency he wins and if not, he has added billions to his brand name and wins again. Yes it’s about ego but then who in politics isn’t on the same trip?

Most people the world over are sick of platitudes from their politicians. And the nit picking. Trump get away with outrageous statements and can do this and survive since people are used to such outbursts as part of his media persona, while all that other Republicans can pin on Hilary is her use of private e mails: big deal. If you wanted to target Trump on issues where would you start; he has been a moving target. People generally want to get down to grass roots issues and in the USA those who care at all about politics take it passionately. In particular voters want action on things which hit their own pockets and Trump’s latest views on tax reform touch all the right buttons.

Most importantly Trump understands the media and is ring master to their circus. He can keep the stories coming and so gets the coverage. There is little media mileage in repeated politically correct platitudes of other candidates so if you had lines to fill or film to submit which camp would you follow? So not only does Trump take the wind out of opposition from his own side but sweeps the carpet out from under the Democratic camp who have very little new to offer which is not already on the table. Politics is brutal and there seem to be no limits to what one can get away with.

Not only does Trump keep the cameras rolling but the show is so good that the other Republicans find it hard to shoot him down without sticking pins into party policy. Trump has said he doesn’t care about existing policy and will take his ball and go home if anyone objects to how he plays the game. The media don’t want him to go. Otherwise they would have focused on the fact that once in the job it becomes not just what you might want to do, but getting the rest of the government on side. You still have to get legislation signed off so its another thing all together. Ask Obama. Obama might have had some great ideas but wasn’t able to push them through.

So can Trump last? On the latest figures there are only three real contenders unless the remainder expect some earthquake to intercede. Whether Trump lasts gets back to the win win scenario as he has little to lose and his resonance that he is not accepting money from lobby groups goes down well with voters. In fact any money he spends on his campaign is actually imprinting his business brand so he wins again. If he doesn't last, his exit strategy is probably already worked out to cement this.

The only elephant in the room in the equation appears to be Jeb Bush and whether the voters can really accept another Bush seeing the way they swung to an Obama after the last Bush legacy.

The world either way faces a serious future. If either of the two contenders win, perhaps Bush still has some wars to finish on behalf of the family, and it is easy to see a Trump "shirt fronting" Putin as a matter of ego and going to a full out war. Does Trump understand the Chinese psyche he will have to contend with and that sending in the seventh fleet when China eventually take over Taiwan could also trigger a world conflict? So far Trump does not really show he has a grip on combating domestic terrorism beyond wanting more guns.

In the UK David Cameron the Prime Minister this week stated in Parliament "No more passive tolerance on terrorism". This is easy to say when you don't offer a solution. Voters in the USA don't know if Trump will have any answers but again they might just give him a chance to try. But by then he will have won one way or the other.